Lifecycles

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Every product generation creates a wave of waste when it reaches end-of-life. Some waves are cresting now. Others are building offshore.

Scroll to ride the waves

01Declining Wave

CRT Monitors & TVs

Peak disposal: 2005–2020

~2.3Mt stockpiled (US alone)

The largest legacy e-waste burden still being processed

⚠️1–2 kg of lead per unit in funnel glass (~20% by weight)

🏭Manufacturing ended 2010–2015. Limited recycling markets cause continued stockpiling.

📋Classified as RCRA hazardous waste due to lead content.

LeadGlassCopper

02Active Wave

First-Gen Flat Panels

Peak disposal: 2015–2025

6.5yr avg lifespan (was 9yr)

Screens & monitors: 5.9Mt globally in 2022

⚠️Mercury in pre-2009 LCD backlights requires special handling

📉TV lifespan dropped from 9 years (2011) to 6.5 years (2022)

📺Production era 2005–2012 now reaching mass end-of-life

MercuryIndiumPlasticGlass

03Emerging Wave

Solar Panels

Peak disposal: 2030–2050

78Mt global waste by 2050

0.6Mt (2022) → 2.4Mt (2030) → 78Mt (2050)

⏱️25–30 year lifespan—early 2000s installations now reaching EOL

💰$15B recovery value by 2050 in silver, silicon, and copper

🚨Currently ~90% landfilled. Recycling infrastructure urgently needed.

SiliconSilverCopperAluminum

04Fast Growing

EV Batteries

Peak disposal: 2035–2050+

20.5Mt end-of-life by 2040

From 0.9Mt (2025) → 23x growth in just 15 years

📈343% increase from 2025 to 2030 alone (0.9Mt → 5.2Mt)

🔋Recycling capacity at ~1/3 utilization—major volume arrives late 2030s

⚡Battery demand hits 3 TWh by 2030. Critical minerals bottleneck looming.

LithiumCobaltNickelGraphite

05Imminent

Windows 10 EOL PCs

Support ends: October 2025

240million PCs at risk

~480,000 tonnes if all disposed (est. ~2kg/unit avg)

🔒Windows 11 TPM 2.0 requirement excludes ~20% of installed base

🗑️Functional hardware made obsolete by software requirements

💡Opportunity: Linux conversion, refurbishment programs, extended support

CopperGoldREEsPlastics

06Continuous

Smartphones

Ongoing ~2.5yr replacement cycle

~5Bunits drop out of use annually

Not a wave—a constant, relentless current (est.)

📱16+ billion phones owned globally (~2 per person). 6B+ manufactured annually.

🗄️Over 50% stored obsolete in drawers—most don't reach recyclers

⚖️Part of 4.6Mt small IT category (2022). Only 22% formally recycled.

LithiumCobaltREEsGoldCopper

The Complete Picture

200020102020203020402050

CRT (declining)

Flat Panel (active)

Solar (emerging)

EV Battery (growing)

Win10 EOL (imminent)

Smartphones (constant)

The next decade is critical. Solar panels, EV batteries, and software-obsoleted PCs will create unprecedented e-waste volumes. Infrastructure built today determines whether these become waste streams or resource streams.

Plan for wave timing, not current volumes.

Data Sources & Methodology

Primary Source: UN Global E-Waste Monitor 2024 (ITU/UNITAR)

Methodology Note: E-waste projections use sales/lifespan models with Weibull distributions fitted to empirical EU data.

By Category:
• CRT: EPA RCRA, Electronics Recycling Clearinghouse
• Flat Panel: GEM 2020/2024 (5.9Mt in 2022)
• Solar: IRENA/IEA-PVPS End-of-Life Report
• EV Batteries: UNDP Analysis (2025), IEA Global EV Outlook 2025
• Windows 10: Canalys Research (Dec 2023)
• Smartphones: WEEE Forum/UNITAR (Oct 2022)