Demand Growth by Mineral (2024-2040)
Clean energy applications driving exponential demand increases
Demand Growth Index (2024 = 100)
Clean Energy Share of Demand (%)
Lithium (9x by 2040 NZE)
Cobalt (2x)
Nickel (2x)
Graphite (4x)
Copper (+50%)
🔋 Key Demand Drivers
Electric Vehicles
- Each EV battery requires ~200kg of minerals
- EVs account for 70% of cobalt demand growth
- Lithium demand for EVs grows 9x by 2040 (NZE)
Grid & Renewables
- Copper demand from grid expansion up 50%
- Rare earths essential for wind turbine magnets
- Battery storage adding significant demand
Global Supply Chain Geography
Mining and refining concentrated in few countries
Mining Production by Country (2024)
Refining/Processing by Country (2024)
🇨🇳 China
Lithium Refining65%
Cobalt Refining75%
Graphite80%
Rare Earths90%
🇨🇩 DRC
Cobalt Mining73%
Risk LevelCritical
🇮🇩 Indonesia
Nickel Mining55%
Growth Rate+25%/yr
🇦🇺 Australia
Lithium Mining46%
Risk LevelLow
⚠️ Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
- Single point of failure: China controls 60-90% of refining for most battery metals
- Export restrictions: Dec 2024 China restricted exports of several rare earths
- DRC cobalt: 73% of mining, with ongoing conflict and artisanal mining concerns
- Lead times: New mines take ~16-20 years to develop
- Investment slowing: 2024 investment grew only 5% (vs 14% in 2023)
Supply Concentration Risk Assessment
Top 3 countries' share of mining and refining (2024)
Lithium Mining
75% Top 3
Cobalt Mining
84% Top 3
Nickel Mining
72% Top 3
Graphite Mining
78% Top 3
Rare Earths Mining
85% Top 3
China's Refining Dominance
60-90%
🚨 N-1 Supply Risk Analysis
If the largest supplier were removed from the market, how much of global demand could be met?
- Graphite (excl. China): Only 35% of demand could be met
- Rare Earths (excl. China): Only 40% of demand could be met
- Lithium (excl. Australia): 65% of demand could be met
- Cobalt (excl. DRC): 65% of demand could be met
- Nickel (excl. Indonesia): 70% of demand could be met
Secondary Supply & Recycling Potential
By 2040, recycling could reduce primary mineral needs by 10-30%
Recycling Potential by Mineral (% of Demand by 2040)
EV Battery End-of-Life Volume (GWh)
♻️ Copper
Current Recycling Rate35%
2040 Potential30% of demand
♻️ Lithium
Current Recycling Rate<5%
2040 Potential15% of demand
♻️ Cobalt
Current Recycling Rate15%
2040 Potential25% of demand
🔄 Circular Economy Opportunities
Battery Recycling Scale-Up
- EV batteries reaching EOL: 1.5M tonnes by 2030
- Battery recycling capacity growing 25% annually
- Hydrometallurgical processes achieving 95% recovery
- EU Battery Regulation mandates recycled content
Policy Drivers
- EU: 16% recycled cobalt, 6% lithium by 2031
- US IRA incentives for domestic recycling
- China targeting 70% battery recycling by 2030
- Extended Producer Responsibility expanding