Research
Ever wonder what types of organizations are best suited to a post-disposable economy or how we can make our collective future more fun and sustainable?
Explore ideas like those along with wonderings on circularity, ecology, and the systems that surround us.
Published on Substack as The Riparian.
Scroll down to discover interactive data based on research from the UN Global E-Waste Monitor 2024, BloombergNEF, IEA Global and more.
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Recent posts from The Riparian
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Electronics Lifecycle Waves - Six waves of e-waste, each on its own timeline. See what's coming — solar panels, EV batteries, software-obsoleted PCs — and when.
Critical Mineral Demand - Three scenarios visualized at scale. Most published mineral outlooks pick one frame; this shows all three side by side.
THE RIPARIAN
INTERACTIVE RESEARCH
ELECTRONICS LIFECYCLES
Annual e-waste generation is on track to reach 82 million tons by 2030. Each product category reaches end-of-life on its own timeline.
Six waves, six different problems. Solar panels, EV batteries, and software-obsoleted PCs are all queuing up. The infrastructure built today decides whether these become waste streams or resource streams.
Methodology: E-waste projections use sales/lifespan models with Weibull distributions fitted to empirical EU data.
By category:
CRT — EPA RCRA, Electronics Recycling Clearinghouse
Flat Panel — GEM 2020/2024 (5.9Mt in 2022)
Solar — IRENA/IEA-PVPS End-of-Life Report
EV Batteries — UNDP Analysis (2025), IEA Global EV Outlook 2025
Windows 10 — Canalys Research (Dec 2023)
Smartphones — WEEE Forum/UNITAR (Oct 2022)
INTERACTIVE RESEARCH
By 2040, the world will need exponentially more lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare earths, and copper than it mines today. The forecasts vary but the direction doesn't. Three scenarios IEA STEPS, IEA Net Zero, and an AI-aware S&P/BNEF hybrid help to visualize the demand as it at scales.
NET ZERO SCENARIOS
- EV sales hitting 20% of new-car sales globally
- Grid-scale battery installations breaking records quarterly
Sources & Methodology
Primary Sources
This visual draws on three forecasts. STEPS and NET ZERO are from the International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook (2024 and 2025 editions). The third scenario, S&P / BNEF, reflects more aggressive copper assumptions from S&P Global's January 2026 study and BloombergNEF's Transition Metals Outlook 2025, which incorporate AI/data-center and defense demand vectors that the IEA's energy-transition focus undercounts.
↗ IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024
↗ IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
↗ S&P Global: Copper in the Age of AI (Jan 2026)
↗ BloombergNEF Transition Metals Outlook 2025
How the Two Views Work
Multiplier view sizes each cube as 10% of that mineral's 2024 production. This makes growth rates comparable across minerals — lithium's 9× pile towers over copper's 1.5× pile, capturing the "lithium sprint" narrative.
Absolute tonnage view uses a shared cube mass of 500,000 tonnes across all minerals. This shows the physical mining and refining build-out — copper towers, lithium nearly disappears. Both views are true; they tell different stories.
2024 Production Baselines
Absolute tonnage figures use 2024 mine production from the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, rounded for legibility.
| Mineral | 2024 | STEPS 2040 | NZE 2040 | S&P/BNEF 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | 240 kt | 1.2 Mt (5×) | 2.16 Mt (9×) | 2.16 Mt (9×) |
| Cobalt | 240 kt | 385 kt (1.6×) | 480 kt (2×) | 480 kt (2×) |
| Nickel | 3.7 Mt | 7.4 Mt (2×) | 7.4 Mt (2×) | 7.4 Mt (2×) |
| Graphite | 1.8 Mt | 3.6 Mt (2×) | 7.2 Mt (4×) | 7.2 Mt (4×) |
| Rare earths | 350 kt | 560 kt (1.6×) | 700 kt (2×) | 700 kt (2×) |
| Copper | 23 Mt | 30 Mt (1.3×) | 34 Mt (1.5×) | 42 Mt (1.83×) |
Scenario Definitions
STEPS (Stated Policies, IEA) reflects only policies governments have actually implemented or legislated. It's "current trajectory."
NZE (Net Zero Emissions by 2050, IEA) is a normative scenario — it models the mineral deployment that would be required to hit the 1.5°C climate goal.
S&P / BNEF mirrors NZE on most minerals but uses S&P Global's January 2026 copper outlook of 42 Mt/yr by 2040, which adds four cumulative demand vectors: core economic growth, energy transition, AI/data centers, and defense.
Caveats
These are scenario projections, not forecasts. Actual 2040 demand will depend on battery chemistry shifts (LFP vs. NMC), recycling scale-up, EV adoption rates, AI infrastructure intensity, and policy settings. The S&P/BNEF scenario as constructed here is a hybrid: it uses S&P's copper number combined with NZE assumptions for other minerals, because no single forecaster publishes a fully harmonized "AI-aware" scenario across all six minerals.